Maine’s Decline in Education and Demographics Impacts National Security

Education builds civilization. Remove it, and the structure crumbles; degrade it, and the civilizational decline begins. That doesn’t mean everyone needs a medical or engineering degree.

Real education begins with the basics: reading, writing, mathematics, and the ability to think critically. That applies to the mental skills required by a mechanic, a plumber, a farmer, a lobsterman, an engineer, a nurse, or a doctor or practically every other job. It is foundational not only to commercial success but also to national security. Maine offers a stark example of how educational decline, paired with shifting demographics, poses real national security risks - especially for the Navy, which depends on the state’s two major shipyards.

Problem #1: The Education Collapse

Consider in this case educational assessments, spending, and outcomes. My interest in education policy dates to 1986, when I served in the Maine Department of Education’s Assessment Division under the Governor’s Intern Program. I was assigned to its Assessment Division in what was the second or third year of what was then called the Maine Educational Assessment which tested all Maine students in the 4^th, 8^th, and 11^th grades. It was an excellent introduction to assessment and the value of data, thanks in large part to a great mentor.

In the early 2000s, Maine stood among the top-performing states in the nation in public education outcomes. On the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), the state routinely ranked in the top ten, with fourth- and eighth-grade students outperforming most of their peers nationwide in reading and math. Yet by 2024, Maine tumbled precipitously to 38th nationally, with fourth-grade math and reading outcomes among the worst in the country. Nor was that the only assessment. The 2025 Kids Count Data Book by the Annie E. Casey Foundation showed similar results for Maine. It ranks Maine at 41st in the country for education, citing lower levels of preschool enrollment, declining graduation rates and lower test scores.

Just 24 percent of fourth graders are proficient in reading, and only 33 percent in math. Seventy-five percent of 8^th graders are not proficient in math.

What was the response by one of the state’s advocacy groups to the grim assessments?

Kristen Kinchla of the Maine Children's Alliance said the continued decline in these measurements means the state must dedicate more resources to education.

"We need a more robust statewide response and approach to making improvements in this area, making sure that there's professional development for teachers and that there's supports for students, and that we're really investing in kids," Kinchla said.

This is inconsistent with the realities of the spending history on public education in the state but understandable given the nature of organization like it when the only answer is increased funding.

Despite increased per-pupil spending, higher-than-average state support, and one of the highest education budgets in its history, Maine's public education system has yielded only worsening outcomes. In 2000, the state allocated approximately $778 million in state funding to support K-12 education. By 2018, this had risen to roughly $991 million, and by 2024, that figure climbed to between $1.2 and $1.3 billion. At the same time, per-pupil spending rose from approximately $6,223 in 2000 to $12,443 in 2018 and is now over $20,000, placing Maine in the top ten nationally for spending per student. Compare this to the recently closed St. Dominic Catholic High School in Maine where tuition was $14,400. Nationally, Maine’s per pupil spending is $3,000 above the national average and ranks 16th of spending per pupil (other figures have it as ranking 9^th.)

More problematic is that public school enrollment has steadily declined. From 210,000 K-12 students in 1990 to approximately 166,000 by 2024 (though the State DoE has it at 171,000). During that same time period, the number of administrators has increased. From approximately 900-1,000 public school administrators in 1990, Maine’s total had risen to about 1,140 by 2018 and slightly more by 2024. Maine's schools have one of the highest administrator-to-student ratios in the country. In 1990 there was approximately one administrator for every 210 students. In 2024 it was approximately one administrator for every 146 students.

In short, Maine has dramatically increased spending per student with more administrators per student, on far fewer students to achieve less.

In the past year, I’ve spoken with old friends and colleagues in state education or serving on various boards to learn what the problems are. Some (even former administrators) admit the number of staff has contributed to the problem, others suggest that the state and districts have focused more on social issues. In 2023, for example, the Maine Commissioner of Education stated at a hearing that “Academic learning is definitely going to take a backseat to all of these other pieces [Social and Emotional Learning goals and objectives.]”

In Maine, core academics haven’t merely taken a back seat - they’ve been locked in the trunk.

The problem isn’t with the teachers - having taken an adult ed course taught by a high school biology teacher, I saw the knowledge, commitment, and creativity they bring to students. The problem lies in administration, school boards, and policies that are deterring from basic educational functions. Instructional priorities have shifted toward broader social initiatives, often at the expense of essential skills like math and literacy which are needed for nearly any job.

Increasingly, families have turned to home-schooling. In 2000, 4,400 students were homeschooled in Maine; by 2021 that had nearly tripled to 12,000 (source: Portland Press Herald. but has leveled at 10,000 more recently. Homeschooling has become more viable in the information era and studies show homeschoolers out-perform public school peers on standardized tests

Problem #2: The Demographic Collapse

Maine has the oldest population in the nation, with a median age around 44.8 years and 23 percent of its residents aged 65 and older, the highest share among U.S. states. Only 17 to 18 percent of the state is under 18, ranking it at the bottom nationally. This demographic reality means Maine faces significant workforce attrition due to retirement in coming years. A 2023 report by the Maine Center for Economic Policy projected that as baby boomers continue to exit the labor force, Maine could lose approximately 65,000 workers over the next decade, with much of that impact front-loaded in the next five years. For critical industries like naval shipyards, where skilled labor is vital, replacing these retirees presents a pressing challenge especially as other industries compete for skilled labor in the same decreasing population pool.

Demographically, Maine is experiencing more deaths than births, shrinking its younger population cohort. Since 2011, Maine births have lagged behind deaths, and the share of children under 18 is only 17.8%, while births fell to about 8.3 per 1,000 residents by 2021, well below national averages. The only two factors that have mitigated the overall population decline has been refugee populations and those that moved during the COVID era. In the latter case, few of those were skilled labor, more likely those from New York, Boston, etc., many of whom had significantly higher incomes than the state's existing population, many following the lead of previous migrants and why so much of the Maine Legislature is comprised of those “from away.”

According to a 2023 housing report by MaineHousing, these newcomers had average household incomes of around $88,000, compared to the $63,200 median income for longtime residents in southern counties like York and Cumberland. As a result, they were far better positioned to afford homes amid rising prices – and less likely to be in trade fields required for shipbuilding and ancillary businesses. This migration surge, which brought over 26,000 people between 2020 and 2021, made Maine the only U.S. state where every county saw net income gains from new residents. While this influx bolstered local economies, it also exacerbated housing affordability issues, pricing out many native Mainers and reshaping the state’s demographic and economic landscape.

Yet many of these new residents lacked the trade skills critical to shipyard labor. Compounding the problem, coastal housing, where these shipyards are necessarily located, has become unaffordable for skilled workers, driving them inland and out of range of consistent employment.

If Maine cannot reverse its educational and demographic decline, it risks becoming a case study in how internal weaknesses can undercut national security. The Maine shipyards are not just regional employers - they are strategic assets for the U.S. Navy. Yet without a steady pipeline of skilled, educated workers, their future operational capacity is at risk as well as delays in construction.

There are other contributary issues – highest energy costs in the nation, unavailability of housing, etc. – that also must be addressed in a wholistic approach. But the solution is not simply more funding. Sometimes throwing more money at a problem is ineffective if there are broader cultural and policy issues that simply perpetuate the problem or deteriorate it. A sufficient portion in a culture have to desire something to make it happen. Money can build a new Catholic Church, for example, but it won’t necessarily create a new priest or require parishioners to give it life and sustain it over time. The same is true if too few people are interested in a particular trade to build the ships. Congress can fund twenty ships if it wants to, but without the skilled workers to build or maintain them, there will be no shift in returning the US as the largest navy in the world.

One thing is certain: relying on the same factors that created the problems to now solve it is a proven recipe for failure. Dig deeper and you may find there’s a reason some of those individuals or organizations are not solving them.

As they say, “follow the money.”